The future of probability
Type the missing word in each sentence. You hear each sentence read by a native voice.
¿Qué ruido es ese? No sé, (ser) los vecinos.
What noise is that? I don't know, it must be the neighbors.
The rule
This use can be confusing because forms such as estará and será do not always mean “will be.” When the context is clearly about the present, they often mean “probably is” or “must be.”
The pattern
Use the future tense to make an uncertain guess about the present. The speaker does not know the answer, but makes a reasonable assumption.
| Situation | Spanish | Usual meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Guess about now | Será tarde. | It must be late. |
| Guess about now | Estará en casa. | He or she is probably home. |
| Guess about now | Serán las tres. | It must be around three. |
The clue is the context. If someone asks what time it is right now, Serán las tres is not about the future. It means the speaker is estimating the current time.
Questions with the future can also express uncertainty. ¿Quién será? means “Who could that be?” The speaker is wondering aloud, not asking who someone will be.
Use the conditional, a form often translated as “would,” for the same kind of guess about the past. Serían las diez means “It must have been around ten.”
This is mainly a listening and reading skill. When you see a future form in a sentence that is clearly about now, read it as a guess, not a plan.
Examples
- ¿Qué hora es? No sé, serán las tres.What time is it? I don’t know, it must be around three.
- ¿Dónde está Ana? Estará en el tren.Where is Ana? She is probably on the train.
- Suena el timbre. ¿Quién será?The doorbell is ringing. Who could that be?
- No contesta el teléfono. Estará ocupado.He or she is not answering the phone. He or she is probably busy.
- Será difícil encontrar estacionamiento.It is probably hard to find parking.
- Serían las diez cuando volvió.It must have been around ten when he came back.
Watch out
- Reading Estará en casa as “he will be at home” in a conversation about now. Estará en casa = He is probably home.The future form with a present-time context is a guess.
- Reading ¿Quién será? as “who will he be?” when someone just knocked. ¿Quién será? = Who could that be?The speaker is wondering aloud.
- Serán las tres ayer. Serían las tres ayer. Use the conditional, not the future, for a guess about the past.